أخبار اليوم

أمريكا والسعودية تعلنان عن تحرك جديد للحل في سوريا.. ومصدر يكشف التفاصيل

أمريكا والسعودية تعلنان عن تحرك جديد للحل في سوريا.. ومصدر يكشف التفاصيل

أخبار اليوم

متابعة وتحرير

بعد عودة العلاقات بين نظام الاسد وبعض الدول العربية وكان آخرها زيارة وزير خارجية الامارات إلى دمشق دون الإفصاح عن الغرض من الزيارة والأنباء التي تتحدث عن دعوة الامارات بشار الأسد لزيارتها،

ودخول السعودية على خط الملف السوري بعد غياب طويل والتحركات من قبلها لتحريك هذا الملف من جديد لإيجاد حل للقضية السورية،

وسعي الجزائر للحصول على إجماع عربي لعودة النظام السوري لحظيرة الجامعة العربية من أجل حضوره في القمة العربية المزمع عقدها في الجزائر،

أجرى المبعوث الدولي إلى سوريا “غير بيدرسون” مباحثات حول الملف السوري مع وزير الخارجية السعودي “فيصل بن فرحان”، كما استعرضا الجهود السياسية المبذولة لحل الأزمة السورية، وذلك في زيارة خاصة أجراها بيدرسون إلى الرياض.

وبحسب وكالة أنباء السعودية “واس” فإنّ وزير الخارجية السعودي استقبل “بيدرسون” في مقر الوزارة بالرياض، يوم أمس الأول، مضيفةً أنّه جرى خلال اللقاء بحث مستجدات الملف السوري والجهود السياسية المبذولة حياله، دون ذكر تفاصيل حول جدول الزيارة ومدتها.

وتطرق اللقاء السعودي مع بيدرسون إلى تعزيز التنسيق المشترك بين السعودية والأمم المتحدة لإرساء دعائم الأمن والاستقرار في المنطقة والعالم، وفقاً لـ “واس”.

ويأتي لقاء بيدرسون مع الوزير السعودي بعد يومين من لقاء مماثل مع وزير الخارجية الأردني “أيمن الصفدي”، حيث تباحثا الملف السوري أيضاً، والمحاولات للوصول إلى حل سياسي.

وتشهد الساحة السورية تطورات سياسية متسارعة، خلال الفترة الأخيرة، حيث تعمل الدول العربية على التطبيع مع نظام الأسد بشكل متسلسل، حيث أكملت الإمارات الخطوة التي بدأتها الأردن ببناء جسر علاقات مع النظام عبر اتفاقيات اقتصادية،

اقرأ أيضاً: تحديد مناطق وأهـ.ـداف العمـ.ـلية التركية التي أمر بها الرئيس أردوغان في سوريا

تبدو تركيا أكثر إصراراً على شـ.ـنّ عمـ.ـلية عسـ.ـكرية جـ.ـديدة في سوريا، بعد المناورات المشتركة التي أجرتها مؤخراً مع الجـ.ـيش الوطني السوري قرب خطوط التماس مع قسد في أكثر من محور؛ والتي تهدف للتأكد من الجـ.ـاهزية القتـ.ـالية والاستعداد لأي هجـ.ـوم محتمل.

ومع ذلك، فإن قرار تركيا شـ.ـنّ عمـ.ـلية عسـ.ـكرية خامسة في سوريا بعد عمـ.ـليات درع الفرات (2016) وغصن الزيتون (2018) ونبـ.ـع السـ.ـلام (2019)،

ودرع الربيع (2020) سيكون أكثر صعـ.ـوبة ومرتبطاً بعدد من المحددات أبرزها القرار السياسي، ومنـ.ـع الاشتباك، ومكـ.ـافحة الإرهـ.ـاب،

والجبهات المحتملة للعمـ.ـلية العسـ.ـكرية هي تل رفعت، ومنبج، وعين العرب، وعين عيسى، وتل تمر. وقد لا يقتصر الهجـ.ـوم على منطقة واحدة؛ لا سيما إذا كانت تركيا على استعداد لمواجـ.ـهة أو احتواء التحـ.ـديات السياسية والعسـ.ـكرية.

القرار السياسي

عندما أطـ.ـلقت تركيا عمـ.ـلية نبـ.ـع السـ.ـلام في 9 تشـ.ـرين الأول 2019 كانت قد ضمنت عدم اعتـ.ـراض الولايات المتحدة عليها؛ فإعلان البيت الأبيض حينذاك بعـ.ـدم دعم العمـ.ـلية أو المشاركة فيها أو الوجود في المنطقة التي تجري فيها، لا يعني رفضاً لها، بل إخلاء للمسؤولية،

وهو ما عبّر عنه الرئيس الأميركي السابق دونالد ترامب بشكل أوضح بعدما جدد النية للانسحاب من سوريا مع ضرورة إيجاد تركيا والأكراد وبقية القـ.ـوى الحلول للموقف.

ولم تكن تركيا لتطـ.ـلق عمـ.ـلية غصن الزيتون في 20 كانون الثاني 2018 قبل أن تضمن عدم اعتراض روسيا التي أجرت معها مباحثات على مستوى وزراء الخارجية والدفاع ورؤساء الاستخبارات منتصف الشهـ.ـر نفسه من أجل استخدام المجال الجوي وانسـ.ـحاب القـ.ـوات الروسية من المنطقة.

ومع نية تركيا شـ.ـنّ عمـ.ـلية عسـ.ـكرية جـ.ـديدة في سوريا، بدأت العمل على ضمان موافقة أو عدم اعتراض موسكو وواشنطن أو كلاهما معاً،

إذ لم يفوّت الرئيس رجب طيب أردوغان الفرصة خلال اللقاء الذي جمعه مع نظيره جو بايدن في 12 تشـ.ـرين الأول 2021 على هامش قمة العشـ.ـرين للتعبير عن أسف بلاده حيال الدعم الذي تتلقاه وحدات الحماية الكردية من الولايات المتحدة.

كما أن تركيا تجري ومنذ نهـ.ـاية تشـ.ـرين الأوّل مباحثات غير معلنة مع روسيا لإتاحة المجال أمامها من أجل شـ.ـنّ عمـ.ـلية عسـ.ـكرية جـ.ـديدة في سوريا.

من غير الواضح مدى قدرة تركيا على التوصل لاتفاق مع روسيا والولايات المتحدة، وبدون ضمان الحصول على موقف سياسي إيجابي أو غير سلبي من أحدهما أو كلاهما فلن تكون قادرة على شنّ عملية جديدة،

لأنها لن تكون مستعدة لتحمّل التكاليف المترتبة على أي قرار مستقل سواء بما يخص تأثيره على التعاون الثنائي مع روسيا في سوريا أو العلاقة مع الولايات المتحدة.

لذلك، بمجرد توصل تركيا إلى قرار سياسي مع إحدى القوّتين فلن تفوّت فرصة الهجوم على مناطق العمليات الخمس المحتملة، مع العمل على احتواء موقف القوة الأخرى سياسياً وعسكرياً.

لكن ذلك لا يبدو بهذه السهولة؛ حيث تغيّرت الظروف السياسية والعسكرية. فعلى سبيل المثال، كان تعاون روسيا مع تركيا في عملية غصن الزيتون نتيجة الاستياء من عدم استجابة حزب قسد لمطالبها بتسليم عفرين إلى النظام السوري مع استمرار دعم الولايات المتحدة له.

إضافة إلى ضرورة التوصل مع تركيا لاتفاق جديد حول وقف إطلاق النار في منطقة خفض التصعيد لضمان عدم استرداد فصائل المعارضة المناطق التي خسرتها على حساب النظام السوري في أرياف إدلب وحلب وحماة.

مكـ.ـافحة الإرهـ.ـاب
منذ مطلع عام 2021 تعرّضت حدود تركيا الجنوبية لهجومين مصدرهما مناطق سيطرة قوات سوريا الديمقراطية في عين العرب وتل رفعت بمحافظة حلب؛

ولم تُساهم التفاهمات مع روسيا والولايات المتحدة في منع أنشطة حزب العمال الكردستاني و”وحدات حماية الشعب”، وهو ما عبّر عنه وزير الخارجية مولود جاويش أوغلو في 13 تشرين الأول.

في الأصل، يقوم تدخّل تركيا في سوريا على مهمة مكافحة الإرهاب المتمثل بحزب العمال الكردستاني وتنظيم داعش. مؤخراً، في 26 تشرين الأوّل منح البرلمان التفويض للرئاسة من أجل الإبقاء على القوات التركية في سوريا والعراق لمدة عامين.

قوبل قرار تمديد التفويض بالاعتراض من قبل حزبي الشعب الجمهوري CHP والشعوب الديمقراطي HDP وهو موقف غير مسبوق مقارنة مع المذكرات السابقة التي بدأت منذ 2 تشرين الأول 2014،

بما يجعل من مهام التدخل خارج الحدود ومكـ.ـافحة الإرهـ.ـاب قضايا مرتبطة بالانتخابات الرئاسية والبرلمانية المزمعة عام 2023.

وبالتالي، ستكون مكـ.ـافحة الإرهـ.ـاب ليست مجرّد مسؤولية بالنسبة لـ “تحالف الشعب” الذي يقوده حزب العدالة والتنمية الحاكم في تركيا بل أحد المحددات الرئيسية في حسابات الربح والخسارة خلال مناقشة قرار العملية العسكرية الجديدة في سوريا.

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  54. Iím amazed, I have to admit. Rarely do I come across a blog thatís equally educative and amusing, and let me tell you, you’ve hit the nail on the head. The problem is an issue that not enough people are speaking intelligently about. I’m very happy that I stumbled across this during my hunt for something regarding this.

  55. After I originally commented I seem to have clicked on the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and now whenever a comment is added I receive 4 emails with the same comment. Perhaps there is a way you are able to remove me from that service? Thanks a lot!